Vertrauen als Gegenstand der ökonomischen Theorie

Der Beitrag vermittelt einen grundlegenden überblick über die Bedeutung des Vertrauens im Rahmen der ?konomischen Theorie. Zun?chst werden ausgew?hlte Ans?tze im Rahmen der betriebswirtschaftlichen Vertrauensforschung diskutiert. Um eine strukturierte Analyse zu erm?glichen, erfolgt eine differenzierte Betrachtung hinsichtlich der neoklassisch und institutionen?konomisch fundierten Perspektive einerseits sowie der sozio?konomischen Perspektive andererseits. Die Diskussion um den Stand der Forschung wird abgerundet durch einen überblick über empirische Ergebnisse der ?konomischen Vertrauensliteratur. Um noch offene Fragen im Rahmen der Forschung zu adressieren, werden im Anschluss die unterschiedlichen Objekte des Vertrauens analysiert, differenziert nach personalen Vertrauen und Systemvertrauen. Zum Abschluss gilt es die Verhaltensrisiken herauszuarbeiten, die mit Vertrauensbeziehungen einhergehen und die Grenzen des Vertrauens in Organisationen zu beleuchten.     

Linear cumulative prospect theory with applications to portfolio selection and insurance demand

Abstract The present paper combines loss attitudes and linear utility by providing an axiomatic analysis of corresponding preferences in a cumulative prospect theory (CPT) framework. In a sense we derive a two-sided variant of Yaari’s dual theory, i.e., nonlinear probability weights in the presence of linear utility. The first important difference is that utility may have a kink at the status quo, which allows for the exhibition of loss aversion. Also, we may have different probability weighting functions for gains than for losses. We apply the model to both portfolio selection and insurance demand. Our results show that CPT with linear utility has more realistic implications than the dual theory since it implies only a weakened variant of plunging. Mathematics Subject Classification (2000): 91B08, 91B28, 91B30 Journal of Economic Literature Classification: D81, G11, G22     

On political business cycles with endogenous election dates

The pattern of policy-generated cycles which result in the Nordhaus model is examined under different hypotheses regarding election date determination.     

Vertical Integration and Market Foreclosure with Convex Downstream Costs

Received December 14, 2000; revised version received July 16, 2001     

Wage inflation and labour conflicts in the Netherlands : An empirical investigation using the co-integration approach

The ‘wage space’, which is defined as the sum of price inflation and labour productivity growth, has played a major role as an indicator of allowable wage increases in the post-war wage negotiations in the Netherlands. This paper shows that: (a) wages and the wage space are co-integrated; (b) the deviation between wages and the wage space may act as an error correction term in the wage equation when both variables are identified as I(2); and (c) political consensus and the threat of labour conflicts (rather than actual strike activity) may be identified as the ‘mechanism’ behind this error correction in the wage equation.     

Environmental problems in Belarus

Résumé By far the most pressing problbem facing Belarus is the radioactive contamination resulting from the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power station and the on-going threat to the environment posed by the destroyed reactor and those blocks which continue to produce electricity. The country is clearly not in a position to cope with the repercussions of the disaster. Western aid is required here, particularly to provide medical care for the population, decontaminate polluted areas, provide reliable measuring equipment and to analyse the level of contamination in food supplies. Air pollution, although worrying in some cities, is not as dramatic as in most of the polluted industrial centres of Russia and the Ukraine. Water pollution, too, is less serious than in most of the successor states to the Soviet Union. A serious problem is, however, posed by salification of the water supply by the potash industry. Recently environmental charges were introduced with the aim of improving environmental protection. Yet given rapid inflation and the persistence of soft budget constraints for enterprises, such charges are unlikely to have so far provided a significant incentive to more ecologically sustainable production in Belarus.     

Sector-specific capital, “Bang-bang” investment,and the Filippov solution

Bang-bang investment in a two-sector growth model with immobile capital is rational and leads to a unique and globally stable long-run equilibrium along a sliding trajectory. This steady state coincides with the stationary equilibrium in the traditional model with non-sector-specific capital.This article was written while the authors were visiting scholars at Cornell University. We gratefully acknowledge financial assistance from the Erasmus University Trust Fund and the Netherlands Scientific Organization. We would like to thank, without implicating, two anonymous referees, Martijn Herrmann, Jean-Marie Viaene, Claus Weddepohl, and the participants of seminars at the University of Maryland, the University of Montreal, and Erasmus University Rotterdam for perceptive remarks and useful comments. Jeroen Hinloopen and Rien Wagenvoort provided able graphical assistance. The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the World Bank.     

A way out of the credibility crisis of models used in integrated environmental assessment

Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) have been widely used in environmental policy making because they simulate natural and socio-economic systems by integrating knowledge derived from a wide range of disciplines. The current IAMs have been found to be limited due to their inability to display both the value-laden nature of the assumptions that underlie the model and the uncertainties in their outputs. A Post-Normal Science approach is required for dealing with these issues, involving participation of ‘extended peer communities’ providing their ‘extended facts’.     

Earnings management and initial public offerings: Evidence from the Netherlands

This paper presents one of the first studies of earnings management by initial public offering (IPO) firms in a European country. Using a sample of 64 Dutch IPOs, we investigate the pattern of discretionary current accruals (DCA) over time. We find that managers manage their company's earnings in the first year as a public company but not in the years before the IPO. We also examine the impact of earnings management on the long-run stock price performance of IPOs. We find a negative relation between the size of the DCA in the first year as a public company and long-run stock price performance over the next 3 years. A number of additional tests support these findings.